– This morning, spare a thought for William Samoei arap Ruto.
He had well laid plans. Some might even say watertight plans. Everything was meant to easily fall in place. Raila was to accept another fraudulent election because he is a statesman. Uhuru was to run his last five years. Ruto was to take over in another sham election come 2022.
And he calculated that 2027 would be a formality, then he would remove term limits or arrange another sham for one of his puppets. Did I say Uhuru was to run his last five years? No, that is not the gospel according to Saint Samoei!
As soon as Uhuru would have been sworn in in August, Samoei foresaw himself playing the presidential role as Uhuru immediately entered lame duck phase. He considers himself the ultimate alpha male, this Samoei. His plans were to install the beacons of his impending rule step by step as Uhuru and his people watched.
But he had not reckoned with Raila’s proverbial “risasi moja”.
At 72, Raila realised that if he accepted the fraud and retired, there would never be another election, just arranged coronations.
And all his struggles would have been in vain. So he finally decided to put his life and reputation on the line for future generations of Kenyans. Justice Maraga played a huge role here, because the other route would have unravelled even faster (story for another day).
Back to Ruto. He had been told Kikuyus will not rudisha mkono in 2022. Fine, he thought. I don’t need them. With my Kalenjin base intact, I just need one big tribe (Luo or Luhya) and one not so big one (Kisii or Meru) to neutralise the influence of the side that the Kikuyus would support. But in the meantime, my puppets will continue to issue subtle threats directed at the Kikuyu about not rudishaing mkono in 2022.
Arrows are not walking sticks, you know. I know they will not support me, but they would rather pray their man does not beat me.
This is the Charles Taylor template. Elect the bad me because if the bad me is not inmh power, my followers will make life bad for you.
Then Raila, that mganga, mtu yal kitendawili, ngetet, mtu ya story refused to play ball.
Surely, this was meant to be touch and go. Damn you mganga!
Now, the longer the crisis drags, the more each of the tribes Ruto was eyeing for an alliance in 2022 gets more radicalized. His relationship with the Luo is damaged beyond repair.
This one, even if Raila himself was to come present Ruto to the Luo and give one of those chanda na pete kitendawilis, this one can’t work. Sometimes the Luo also tell Raila to go jump in the lake. Remember when Raila tried to defend a sanamu that some wahindi had constructed in the middle of Kisumu?
Yeah, that one! Kisumu people told Raila and his muhindis to take their sanamu and go jump in the lake! Well, I am exaggerating the language here, but you get the point?
Hidden deep in this quagmire for Ruto has been one dilemma; If the Kikuyu don’t support me in 2022, and I have clearly lost the Luo, is there a chance of the two combining against me? Because when the two unite (2002), it is a landslide for their side.
The last few elections have basically been a contest of the three tribes, in which two unite against one (and their supporting cast of smaller tribes) to win. 2002, Kikuyu-Luo against the Kalenjin. 2007, Luo-Kalenjin against the Kikuyu. 2013, Kikuyu-Kalenjin against the Luo.
But Raila had to come in and mess up the well laid plans of 2017.
Anyway, so Ruto totally lost any remnants of respect among the Luo.
The Luhya have become so radicalized they want to secede. The Kisii have never quite warmed up to Ruto since PEV, and this Maraga-Akombe collabo just makes it worse. The Meru will most likely lead him on like an unpredictable mate, then go with the Kikuyu in 2022. The Kamba now believe Raila is sweeter that Kitui asali. The longer the election crisis drags on, the more all these tribes harden their positions. You can’t even say the Kalenjin base will be intact in those five years.
First, there is the Gideon Moi problem among the Tugen. Then the restive Marakwet. The utterly uncontrollable Pokot. The unpredictable Keiyo. The rebellious Kipsigis.
Trying to keep all of them happy in five years as they wait is itself a massive challenge. Even his own Nandi have their issues.
There is the perceived invasion of Eldoret, a Nandi jewel, by Kikuyu-Keiyo forces that saw Nandi nationalism resurrect on the streets of Eldoret as Mandago supporters chanted war songs. The Nandi have deepseated marginalization fears, and even though they don’t say it, they feel Ruto routinely looks away as this happens.
The Nandi might just opt for a rabid Nandi like Mandago, who is finishing his tenure at the Governor’s mansion, and may just look for greater things, while carrying the dreams of his people.
All these calculations would not have to be made if mganga had not come to spoil the party in 2017.
The result is that Ruto is degenerating into an out of control angry man. He speaks with veins protruding out of his neck, issues more threats than a helpless weaver bird does to a snake invading its nest, and generally behaves like a village bully gone rogue.
Have you noticed Ruto does not take a break in between speeches to connect with the crowd like all top politicians in the world do? He picks the microphone and begins ranting non stop until he hands it over!
He would like to even spew more insults, but he fears his audience may cheer but begin to have doubts of their own about his suitability. He is losing it.
And as all this goes on, I know two people who watch in horror; Mama Ngina Kenyatta and her son Muhoho. You see these two are creatures of wealth and the sustainability of wealth. They know wealth loves serenity. They know political grandstanding has never sustained wealth.
They also know that there will never be bigger losers on this land than them if things go South. So obviously they don’t like what Ruto has turned Uhuru into. A ranting angry man. Notice that Uhuru does not have original insults.
He picks up the insults Ruto has used. Ruto says Mganga today, tomorrow Uhuru picks it. Ruto says mchawi wa kitendawili today, tomorrow Uhuru adopts it. Basically,
Uhuru is an aristocrat living under the heavy peer pressure burden of a village chicken seller! In the process, he has forgotten he needs to take a brief break from this village stalker to try and talk his country back on track. Uhuru is carrying out Ruto’s wishes. Ruto would rather burn everything and be president of ashes, but Uhuru hasn’t realised that his aristocratic background should not defer to destructive chicken seller whims.
Meanwhile, there is Raila Odinga Which means that there will be no settlement that pleases Ruto next week. Even if they force a two tribe election and the rest secede or swear in their own president, the chance of that well laid 2022 blueprint gets remote by the day.
All the billions amassed for this will have to do something else. The bridges have been burnt. Alliances betrayed. Tribes radicalized.
And nothing makes Ruto angrier!”