Easily the biggest loser of the 2017 General Election is Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka, 63. The results declared by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission seal his political fate for the foreseeable future.
The triumphant Machakos Governor, Dr Alfred Mutua and Makueni Senator Mutula Kilonzo Jnr will most likely come to control the Kamba vote bloc.
There will have to be a leadership transition at he top of every National Super Alliance affiliated party in preparation for the next Presidential election in 2022, Musalia Mudavadi’s Amani National Congress included.
In the Ukambani redoubt, former Vice President Kalonzo was thoroughly outmanouevred by the Governor Mutua, who whitewashed the latter’s governor candidate Wavinya Ndeti. Kalonzo will be 67 in 2022 and had to be dragged kicking and protesting into becoming Raila Odinga’s running mate for a second time in four-and-a-half years. He delayed the naming of the NASA flagbearer by whipping out a 2012 MoU signed and sealed with Raila to the effect that the latter would support his 2017 bid for State House whatever the outcome of the 2013 Presidential race.
NASA now claims that the former Prime Minister garnered 8 million votes to the President’s 7.7 million. This is dimwitted: It gives both contenders more than 50% plus one for a total of 105%. How do you breach 100%?
Political analyst Charles Mulila, who corresponds for the Star and specializes in matters Ukambani, told this correspondent on Thursday, “This is the end of Kalonzo’s career”.
Mulila went on, “Kenyans voted peacefully. And waited for the tally anxiously.
Like it on not, Kenyans voting patterns are tribally inclined.
The results so far announced indicate that Kikuyus, Embus, Merus and the various Kalenjin tribes voted as a bloc.
Luhyas, Luos and Kambas delivered the NASA tally. Registered voters in Gema and the Kalenjin number 7.9million, while the total number of Luhya, Kamba and Luo voters stands at 6.9million.
Based on the outcomes of the lower ballot counts of governors, MPs and senators, this argument is true.
The hard fact is that the registered Gema and Kalenjin voters are more numerous than the Luhya, Kamba and Luo voters.
And NASA is as alive to this fact as much as Jubillee.
NASA made much of President Kenyatta’s campaign remarks when he told Makueni voters that he could win the election without the Kamba vote. But they missed the point completely.
Now the chickens have come home to roost. And Kalonzo is politically poorer as he has to reckon with the emergence of Dr Mutua as an alternative leader in Ukambani.
Then there is the ever green David Musila, whom Kalonzo kicked out of his party in favour of Dr Julius Malombe, who has lost the election. Musila might as well play the role of political moderator in government once Uhuru is sworn in after the tallying is completed.
Given the outcome in Bomet, DP Ruto is the man to beat in 2022. He has twice neutralised political fires in Bomet and has clearly drawn the political line in the sand for his peers.
Now that the political careers of Raila and Wiper hard man Kalonzo are headed straight south, the only available option is to either join Ruto or go back to the drawing board.
The tyrants of numbers will rule ‘Egypt’ for the next five years. Political life in Kenya is this complicated – very complicated.”
To which we may add that Uhuru made a couple of invitations to Kalonzo to reconsider his position in NASA and cross over to Jubilee and find ways of working with Ruto with a view to 2022.
On July 3, 2017, under the headline, “Uhuru points fingers, yet Gatundu has lots of jiggers, Kalonzo says” the Star’s Benjamin Imende reported, “NASA presidential running mate Kalonzo Musyoka has dismissed President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto’s remarks that he is the cause of poverty in Ukambani.
“In a statement yesterday, Kalonzo said this is a show of panic and desperation. He said he could not join UhuRuto because they have failed Kenyans and are a ‘sinking ship’.”
Speaking at NASA’s final campaign rally two days before the General Election, Kalonzo made one of the biggest mistakes of his political life. He said the Mount Kenya region had enjoyed its share of ruling Kenya and it was Raila’s turn to run Kenya. He warned that his and Raila’s leadership would not entertain corruption, tribalism and social injustice. Mount Kenya would have to lie low as NASA represented more than 40 tribes.
In Mount Kenya what the electorate heard were unmistakable echoes of Raila’s 2007 campaign gambit of “41 tribes against 1” in the election that descended into the PEV crisis. Kalonzo’s message was instantly interpreted as an existential threat and the message spread throughout Central: Retire these two at the ballot and do it now.
Former government spokesman Muthui Kariuki, who worked closely with Vice President Kalonzo, reminded this correspondent on Wednesday evening of his having warned Kalonzo to do everything in his power to not join forces with Raila “because my people will not forgive you”.
“And who are your people?” the VP asked Kariuki, who responded, “the Kikuyu”.
The ship that has sunk is clearly not Jubilee’s and the grudge vote that has prevailed is the Mount Kenyan in conjunction with the Rift Valley’s and their allies everywhere.