By Anwar Sadat
With Oct 26th now being deemed as an aborted repeat election date, the reality of a constitutional crisis is slowly sinking home and no one is more alive to this fact than DP William Ruto who is agony seeing his 2022 dreams going up in smoke.
This agony was clearly visible to the thousands of women drawn from across 47 counties who were hosted by President Uhuru Kenyatta and his Deputy William Ruto on Monday.
Sonko let the cat out of bag by insinuating Uhuru was free to declare a State of Emergency, alluding to the fact Jubilee are desperate to avoid a constitutional crisis that would render Uhuru a common citizen.
Unfortunately for Uhuru, the state of emergency option is fraught with legal minefield courtesy of 2010 constitution, which legal experts opine may backfire on Uhuru’s own succession plan.
However, political observers are not taking Sonko’s slip of the tongue lightly. Those who have come to appreciate how Uhuru’s kitchen cabinet operates know that Moses Kuria ‘s light weight order led to indefinite closure of the University of Nairobi while the insider mouth piece Dennis Itumbi generated a list of students to be expelled from the same campus and the Vice Chancellor adopted the list without further question
Sonko’s suggestion of a declaration of a state of emergency is therefore not far fetched but an inadvertent leakage of the innermost strategy by Jubilee Party.
Ruto was seen fidgeting uncomfortably in his seat as the prospects of a state of emergency automatically shift presidential powers temporarily to Speaker of the National assembly Justin Muturi to organise fresh presidential elections within 90 days.
This is precisely the reason Ruto broke away and agreed to meet Chebukati at Bomas yesterday in the afternoon. To the surprise of many Ruto confirmed Jubilee did not have any problem with IEBC and we’re eagerly awaiting 26th Oct polls. To keen observers however, Ruto was betraying anxiety for elections tomsafeguard his 2022 dreams. Further, while at Bomas, Ruto was uncharacteristically accompanied only by his URP supporters (Duale, Murkomen, et al) with the rest of Mt Kenya MPs (Kindiki, Ichung was, Kuria) all keeping away.
Enter the feared Mount Kenya Mafia – MKM
In the meantime, MKM are burning midnight oil vowing that stage powers will not be handed to Raila Odinga under whatever circumstances and that they would rather Uhuru ‘gives’ the presidency to Kenya Defence Forces whose current boss is General Samson Mwathethe.
The KDF succession plan would be ideal only that Mwathethe originates from the coast and his heir apparent is Lieutenant General Joseph Kiptoo Kasaon, a Kalenjin firmly aligned to Ruto camp, who is currently the Vice Chief of Defence Forces having been appointed on 17 April 2015.
MKM have resolved to have both Mwathethe and Kasaon ousted allegedly for the scandalous procurement of substandard defence equipment worth millions of dollars. The equipment range from blown out armed personnel carriers to crashed military aircraft which have ended the lives of hundreds of security officers
The MKM succession organisers have their eyes on Major General Samuel Ng’ang’a Thuita who is the current Commander of Kenya Air Force and a long term military protégé of MKM security strategist General (Retired) Julius Waweru Karangi.
NASA leader Raila Odinga recently made damning allegations implicating General Karangi of having been responsible for generation of fictional election results produced at a military installation in Karen, Nairobi County in the Aug 8th 2017 general elections. Karangi has yetmtomrezpond to these charges but it is an open secret he was also the mastermind of the 2013 election malfeasance.
In MKM’s strategic thinking, both Raila and Ruto must be kept away from mainstream power politics until a suitable heir to the presidency is identified and groomed from around the mountain. This should be good news to Senator Gideon Moi who expects Uhuru to reciprocate goodwill extended to Kenyattas by the Mois in succession politics of 2002.
A military junta take over will unilaterally suspend constitition and occupy power indefinitely without the need of a democratic election, which is the only way to install a civilian presidency.
As the clock clicks towards 26th Oct, anxiety is building across the region and it remains to be seen if Chebukati will break the stalemate by agreeing to NASA demands.
To add to Ruto’s growing anxiety and increasingly disenchanted Kalenjin supporters is the knowkedge of betrayal history from the mountain. Ruto and his supporters are acutely aware how both Kalonzo and Mudavadi were initial front-runners to run for president in 2013 supported by Uhuru and Ruto, only to we be so rudely deprived at the last minute- read also Is it DP Ruto Turn To Enter Mount Kenya Political Slaughter House?