NASA principals at Afraha Stadium in Nakuru. (Photo: File)
The National Super Alliance is the most preferred party followed by Jubilee in Nairobi, an opinion poll now says.
It also highlights that if elections were to be held today, Senator Mike Sonko and Governor Evans Kidero would tie for the city’s top job.
The trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) research conducted between July 1 and 2, says that eight out of seventeen constituencies are NASA strongholds, six Jubilee’s strongholds and three others being hotly contested.
Ruaraka, Kibra, Embakasi South, Dagoreti North, Embakasi Central, Langata, Mathare and Embakasi East constituencies have all been branded NASA strong holds.
Jubilee enjoys majority support in Starehe, Dagoreti South, Roysambu, Kamukunji, Embakasi North and Kasarani. Westlands, Makadara and Embakasi West are all up for grabs with just 32 days to the August polls.
“The support for NASA has gradually increased since July 2016 and it is strongest now compared to Jubilee’s support which has also been on the rise but has recently dropped,” said Maggie Ireri, TIFA director.
According to the poll, NASA’s support has gone up from 38 percent in July 2016 to 47 percent in February 2017 and now stands at 56 percent as of July 2017. Jubilee’s support went up from 38 percent in July 2016 to 42 percent in February 2017 but then dropped to 35 percent as of July this year.
The Gubernatorial battle for the city’s top job has seen Senator Mike Sonko and Incumbent Governor Evans Kidero go neck to neck with the latter garnering 43 percent preference and the former 44 percent.
Peter Kenneth is said to enjoy a 4 percent preference followed by Miguna Miguna with a 1 percent fighting chance while the undecided Nairobians account for 8 percent.
“Since the margin difference is less than three percent then it is safe to say that if elections were held today, Governor Evans Kidero and Senator Mike Sonko would tie,” said Ireri.
Ireri said that out of the sampled 829 respondents, Sonko was doing well because he attracted supporters from NASA, Jubilee as well as other parties compared to Kidero whose support was predominantly from NASA supporters.
Peter Kenneth enjoys two percent support from Jubilee and another two from NASA.
TIFA director said that dynamics for Peter Kenneth who enjoyed a 20 percent preference changed after the Jubilee party nominations which saw him loose to Senator Mike Sonko.
Interestingly, both Jubilee and NASA supporters (31) and (24) percent respectively would not vote for Governor Kidero on the basis that he has not delivered, he had no development agenda and the town was too dirty. On the flipside, the supporters felt that despite Sonko picking Polycarp Igathe as his running mate, he had no expertise or skills to manage Nairobi and his educational level was low.
Additionally, the Senatorial race puts Jubilee’s Johnson Sakaja as supreme having garnered a 39 percent preference followed by NASA’s Edwin Sifuna with 28 percent. Ramesh Gorasia, Suzanne Lenge and Zachary Momanyi enjoy 1 percent preference with the undecided lot accounting for 29 percent.
“Both attract support from all parties but Sifuna’s entry into the race was a bit late giving Sakaja an advantage,” said Ireri.
NASA’s Esther Passaris enjoys a (57) percent preference as the city’s women representative followed by incumbent Rachel Shebesh with (25) percent. Interestingly, one percent of those interviewed would vote for radio personality Maina Kageni, Nadya Khan and another one percent preferring wiper’s Rahab Ndambuki.
The undecided electorate accounts for (15) percent. By virtue of Political party preference, Esther Passaris attracts (42) percent preference from NASA, (11) percent from Jubilee and 4 percent from other parties.
Rachel Shebesh enjoys (4) percent from NASA (19)percent from Jubilee and one percent from other parties.
“Last minute alliances and voter turnout are key determinant factors and could change the political platform,” concluded Ireri.