Anne Waiguru is ahead of Martha Karua in the Kirinyaga gubernatorial race by 20 percentage points, the latest TIFA poll shows.
The poll released on Thursday in Nairobi shows Ms Waiguru has a 55 per cent approval rating against Ms Karua’s 35 per cent.
Ms Waiguru’s popularity seems to be linked to the popularity the Jubilee Party enjoys in the county.
The Uhuru Kenyatta party enjoys 95 per cent support while Ms Karua’s Narc-Kenya has a paltry two per cent.
The incumbent, Joseph Ndathi, who is defending his seat as an independent, has a paltry three per cent support, according to the survey.
Seven per cent of Kirinyaga voters are undecided but it is unlikely that their number will change the current ratings.
In the woman rep race, Purity Wangui Kuria-Ngirici enjoys 86 per cent support and is ahead of Winnie Karimi, who has six per cent.
Some 556 respondents took part in the Kirinyaga survey that had a +/-4.4 per cent margin of error.
The poll was conducted through face-to-face interviews between July 14 and July 17.
In Kilifi, incumbent Governor Amason Kingi of ODM is ahead of his Jubilee rival, Gideon Mung’aro, by more than 30 percentage points.
The TIFA poll results show Mr Kingi enjoys 51 per cent support against Mr Mung’aro’s 16 per cent.
Kazungu Kambi has 15 per cent backing, but 18 per cent of people in the coastal county said they are undecided.
The National Super Alliance (Nasa) is the most popular party in the county at 61 per cent while Jubilee’s support is at 21 per cent.
In Nairobi, Jubilee’s Mike Sonko has closed the popularity gap between him and ODM’s Evans Kidero, both registering a tie at 44 per cent.
Mr Sonko’s popularity rose by one per cent since the last poll released two weeks ago by the same firm.
Independent candidates Peter Kenneth and Miguna Miguna polled four and one per cent, respectively.
Undecided voters accounted for seven per cent, translating to 157,559 people of the 2,250,853 voters, according to figures from the electoral commission.
TIFA director Maggie Ireri attributed the tilting scales in Nairobi to changes in voter preferences.
“Governor Kidero attracts more learned voters who have post-primary education while Senator Sonko has been garnering the support of women across the county,” she said.
“As for Mr Kenneth, he could be a favourite among many, but the main issue is that he lost in the Jubilee nomination.
“He is equally a strong candidate running on the wrong party thus suffering the bandwagon effect.”
Unlike its poll conducted two weeks ago, TIFA increased the sample size to 2,122 from 826 with a +/-2 per cent margin of error.
Overall, the poll also shows Nasa leads in popularity in Nairobi at 53 per cent while Jubilee’s popularity stands at 38 per cent.
The alliance, comprising ODM, Wiper, Chama cha Mashinani and Ford-Kenya, commands a lead in 12 sub-counties while Jubilee has considerable support in four sub-counties.
Mathare is a battleground, according to the poll.
In the senatorial race, Jubilee’s Johnson Sakaja commands 40 per cent popularity, followed by ODM’s Edwin Sifuna at 24 per cent.
The opinion poll also shows that 33 per cent of Nairobi voters are still undecided on their choice for senator.
In the last poll, Mr Sakaja led by 11 per cent, polling 39 per cent against Mr Sifuna’s 28 per cent, but there were many undecided voters, at 29 per cent.
ODM’s Esther Passaris has a 50 per cent popularity rating, a decline of 7 per cent from the last poll.
She is followed by Jubilee’s Rachel Shebesh at 31 per cent, which is a 6 per cent rise since the last poll.
Other candidates — Wiper’s Rahab Ndambuki and Nadya Khan — were at one per cent, way below the undecided voters at 19 per cent.